Offseason 2013

GREENBURGH, N.Y.—Of the 20 players participating here in the Knicks' preseason training camp here, 10 are power forwards.

Five of them are locks to make the opening-day roster, while two others are decent bets. This would seemingly leave the team with an imbalance of power up front. Strange as it sounds, though, the abundance of talent at power forward could be problematic, mostly because that's the one place it would be in the Knicks' best interest to have a single player—Carmelo Anthony, the NBA's reigning scoring champion—getting the minutes.

Here's where the Knicks' newest big man, Andrea Bargnani, comes in: Sliding the 7-footer over to small forward on defense could alleviate the problem and get Anthony more of the minutes he needs.

The suggestion that Bargnani—who is skilled offensively, but was widely seen as one of the NBA's weakest stoppers during his seven years with Toronto—could effectively defend the perimeter might draw blank stares from basketball analysts who have seen the Italian play that side of the ball. Still, there are indications that moving him to small forward on defense could aid the Knicks in several ways.

Beyond unclogging the team's logjam at power forward, sliding Bargnani to the wing would better utilize his best defensive skill: defending jump shots, which he's done at an elite level over the past two seasons, according to advanced metrics.

Not surprisingly, though, statistics weren't enough to sway Sam Mitchell, who coached Bargnani for two-plus years in Toronto. Mitchell, now a SiriusXM basketball analyst, suggested that Bargnani possessed the athleticism to play small forward defensively, but not the fire.

"[Playing small forward on defense] takes a commitment to running, and he's not gonna do that," Mitchell said, adding that he briefly, and unsuccessfully, played Bargnani there during a 2008 playoff series against Orlando.

Mitchell suggested Bargnani should remain in the post, both because he feels the 27-year-old could thrive in the right system, and because teams would be less likely to exploit him near the basket.

There's data to support Mitchell's point. Despite Bargnani's turnstile reputation on defense, a February SportVU study by Kirk Goldsberry showed that opposing shooters made just 35.2% of their shots when Bargnani was within five feet of their shot—the second-best defensive mark in the NBA among the league's 94 post players over the past two years.

But there's a catch: The study highlighted that Bargnani was only within opposing shot attempts 21.9% of the time, which ranked 90th out of 94 post players.

Translation: Bargnani is good at forcing misfires when he can get near the shooter, but he's normally not in good enough defensive position to make a stop.

That helps explain why Toronto's defensive on-court/off-court numbers, which measure how a team thrives or suffers when a specific player goes to the bench, improved for seven straight seasons whenever Bargnani took a breather.

With that in mind, Bargnani's post defense may not be an ideal fit for the Knicks, who were leaky at the rim due to subpar point-guard defense last season. They were third-worst in the league at defending the basket, allowing opponents to shoot 67.5%, according to Hoopdata.

Despite numbers suggesting that Bargnani would be better defensively on the wing—and the possibilities it could create for countless small-ball lineups—it seems highly unlikely that Knicks coach Mike Woodson would use him there.

"He's more agile than you think," Woodson said, adding that he sees Bargnani defending power forwards and centers once the season starts.

But Bargnani's ability to contest jump shooters—among post players, he limited opponents to a league-low 31.4% shooting last season, per Synergy Sports—would appear to mesh well with his new post-defending teammates. He'd certainly give up more than his share of drives to the basket, but he could be taught to funnel his men to the capable post defenders standing behind him.

Aside from former Defensive Player of the Year Tyson Chandler, Bargnani would also have Anthony and Metta World Peace—both of whom have lately defended better in the post rather than the wing—to provide help at the rim. Anthony and World Peace held opposing players to 32.1% and 37.7% shooting down low, respectively, last season, good for the 92nd and 74th percentiles league-wide, according to Synergy. (Another reason to play them and not Bargnani down low: They each rebounded at a higher rate than the 7-footer last year.)

And using Bargnani as a small forward on defense has worked before. In the past two seasons with the Raptors, he played 131 minutes on the wing alongside Linas Kleiza and Amir Johnson, a pair of players who, despite being shorter, better fit the profile of traditional post players through rebounding and defense.

Over that span, the Raptors forced an offensive rating of 95.9 per 100 possessions on 39.6% shooting (82-of-207) per NBA.com—both of which would have ranked best in the league defensively. (Toronto otherwise allowed 106 points per 100 possessions on 44.8% shooting, defensive marks that put it in the middle of the pack.)

Bargnani said it was too soon to think about where he fits best, and that he hadn't yet talked with coaches about how to refine his defense. "We're just starting training camp," he said. "The roles and the X's and O's will come later."

Time will tell if Bargnani has more to give on that end. But there's plenty to suggest how to use him effectively.